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On July 25, Global Infrastructure Hub (GIH) A G20 INITIATIVE has released a latest report of Global Infrastructure Outlook (Outlook). The Outlook Analyzed Infrastructure investment needs across 50 countries and seven sectors (Road, Electricity, Rail, Water, Telecoms, Port, and Airport) to 2040. According to the outlook, the need for global infrastructure investment is forecast to reach $97 trillion by 2040, and they estimate China’s infrastructure investment to be slightly over $26 trillion

The Outlook shows, the need for global infrastructure investment is forecast to reach $94 trillion by 2040, and a further $3.5 trillion will be required to meet the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for electricity and water. So the total need for global infrastructure will reach $97 trillion.

Rapid economic development in China over the last decade has been accompanied by a huge programme of infrastructure investment, such that between 2007 and 2015, GIH estimate that China accounted for almost 30 percent of all global infrastructure investment. While GIH expect the rate of infrastructure investment growth to moderate during the forecast period, in common with the pattern for overall investment within the Chinese economy, GIH expect China to maintain a similar share of global infrastructure investment in future. Under current trends, GIH estimate China’s infrastructure investment to be slightly over $26 trillion, or $1.1 trillion per year. Given China’s strong recent infrastructure investment performance, relatively little uplift in investment is required for China to match the performance of its top performing peers. As such, the infrastructure need forecast is just seven percent higher than under current trends.

China total infrastructure spending needs, 2016-2040

China’s infrastructure boom has been relatively broad-based, and the distribution of investment across sectors is similar to the global average, although the China has invested an above-average share in rail infrastructure, and a below-average share in telecoms. GIH analysis suggests the proportion of investment going to rail and road infrastructure could increase in future, while electricity may account for a slightly smaller share of investment than in the past.

China sectoral pattern of infrastructure investment, 2007-2040

In common with the pattern observed elsewhere in this study, the road and electricity sectors account for a large proportion of China’s estimated future spending need: together they account for $18 trillion out of the $26 trillion total spending forecast under current trends. However, rail also plays an unusually prominent role within the Chinese infrastructure market as the country continues to develop a network of high speed lines to link its major cities. Under current trends, $5.4 trillion of investment in rail infrastructure is expected between 2016 and 2040.

China infrastructure spending needs by sector, 2016-2040: cumulative (left scale) and annual average (right scale)

China infrastructure spending needs by sector, 2007-2040: percent of GDP

"Global Infrastructure Outlook is a detailed review and analytical tool that enables governments, businesses and infrastructure organizations to comprehensively analyse and predict infrastructure investment requirements across the globe over the next 25 years” Chris Heathcote, CEO of GIH also said “These insights will help governments identify and respond to infrastructure needs, and guide opportunities for private sector investors.”